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Earlier today, Tuesday, GBP/JPY faced selling near the 211.35 level, or the 50-day SMA, halting the solid rebound seen the previous day from the round 209.00 level — the lowest point in the past four days. In recent trading hours, quotes declined toward the psychological 210.00 level, although the current intraday drop does not yet signal a reversal into a sustained bearish trend.
The British pound continues to show relative weakness amid rising domestic political uncertainty. The catalyst was the unexpected success of the Green Party in the Gorton and Denton by-election, dealing a noticeable blow to the already fragile authority of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The voting results intensified doubts about his leadership, and political risks — combined with easing expectations of further action from the Bank of England — are putting pressure on the pound and, consequently, on GBP/JPY.
Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking before the Treasury Select Committee, stated that if inflation falls to the 2% target level, there could be room for interest rate cuts.
On the other side of the pair, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the regulator is ready to consider policy tightening if forecasts for economic growth and inflation are confirmed, highlighting the divergence in the monetary approaches of the two central banks.
Additional support for the yen comes from rising geopolitical tensions, which are driving capital flows into safe-haven assets and increasing pressure on GBP/JPY.
At the same time, data released on Friday showed that Tokyo's core Consumer Price Index fell below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since 2024. Against this backdrop, reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concern about further policy tightening are reducing expectations of an imminent rate hike. This factor could limit further yen appreciation and partially support the pound against the Japanese currency.
From a technical perspective, if the pair fails to hold above the psychological 210.00 level and drops to 209.00, fully engulfing the previous day's range, it would clearly signal further downside. Prices could then move toward the 100-day SMA, located near the 208.00 round level.
For now, however, 210.00 is acting as support, while the 50-day SMA serves as resistance. It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart are gradually moving into negative territory, confirming weakening bullish momentum, suggesting that bulls are unlikely to be able to defend the 210.00 level for long.
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