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Bitcoin still shows little intention to rise, but yesterday, it did climb by a few thousand dollars. However, so far, that move has not closed the sideways range. A deviation may show up near the upper border of the channel, or there may be a full breakout — at present, it's unclear which scenario will happen.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump called on banks to stop blocking passage of the Clarity Act and to refrain from trying to weaken the state's crypto position. He also urged senators to pass transparent crypto regulation legislation as soon as possible, warning that inaction could strengthen China's position. Trump did not specify how inaction would help China, and China recently banned all cryptocurrency transactions.
Trump always finds a rationale for his initiatives that will sound convincing to the public. By the same logic, he could urge Americans to buy crypto, "or China will take the lead." We have seen similar rhetoric for a year now. Trump is effectively telling Americans: "Pay the tariffs or China will take over key trade sectors and become the world's largest economy."
The president also said that commercial banks are earning record profits and have a vested interest in slowing crypto's development. Earlier, major crypto exchange Coinbase withdrew support for the bill, and the proposal is currently stuck in the Senate Banking Committee. Banks oppose allowing dividend-like payouts for holding stablecoins by various capital-accumulating companies. If such payouts were permitted, capital could start leaving the banking system as investors shift interest to stablecoin deposits. That issue remains the stumbling block.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. From POI areas, note only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, which is located quite far from the current price. Also, pay attention to a possible deviation from the upper border of the sideways channel on the 4-hour timeframe, which could trigger a new drop.
A downtrend is still underway on the daily timeframe. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. Since its formation, Ethereum has already fallen about 55%, roughly $2,500. In the near term, an upside correction is realistic, but the price is still in a fairly narrow sideways channel. At the moment, Ethereum has just tested the upper border of that channel, so we are again looking at the possible deviation.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop-Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one particular direction in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market-maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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