06.03.202619:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Smart Money. What's wrong with the market?

The GBP/USD pair continues the process of declining within a "bullish" trend. The only working pattern remains the "bearish" imbalance 16, but the bulls lacked literally 6–7 points to touch it last week and form a signal. The market has gone through the beginning of the war in the Middle East. The further decline of the pair now depends on how many countries become involved in the conflict and which countries, besides the nearest ones, Iran will strike. And Iran has no intention of stopping at what it has achieved and is striking everywhere its missiles can reach. Because of this, oil refining and liquefied gas production in the region have effectively stopped. And the Middle East supplies a huge amount of fuel to global markets. This easily explains the rise in oil and gas prices. However, today the market should have shifted its attention to the troubled American economy. New reports on the labor market and unemployment were released, and this time none of the traders or analysts will be able to find even a spoonful of honey in them. However, the pound has been trading for the fifth consecutive day in the liquidity sweep zone from the last two "bearish" swings. It does not want to rise, but it cannot fall.

At the moment, there are no "bullish" patterns, and the price is unlikely to return to imbalance 16 anytime soon and produce a signal for traders on the second attempt. In my opinion, if no new escalation occurs in the Middle East in the coming days, the pound may begin to gradually recover. However, today bullish traders had an excellent opportunity for a counteroffensive. They did not take advantage of it. Perhaps by the end of the day the situation will change and the bulls will wake up, but for now nothing of the sort is visible.

The "bullish" trend for the pound remains intact. Therefore, as long as it remains (above the level of 1.3012), I would pay more attention to "bullish" signals. The decline of the pound may be quite strong, but it may also end at any moment. The only currently valid imbalance, 16, has still not produced any signal. No new "bearish" patterns are expected this week either. The market ignores the American statistics and does not want to sell the dollar in favor of other currencies.

The information background on Friday was entirely on the side of the bulls. The Nonfarm Payrolls figure turned out to be 151 thousand below market expectations, and the unemployment rate in the United States increased, contrary to traders' expectations. Retail sales volumes fell by 0.2% in January. The three most important reports could have caused a decline in the American currency.

In the United States, the overall information background remains such that nothing but a decline of the dollar can be expected in the long term. And the war between Iran and the United States changes little for now. The situation for the US dollar remains quite difficult in the long term and rather positive in the short term. But the point is that it is positive only in the short term. US labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they please. The last three of the four FOMC meetings ended with a "dovish" decision. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, "shutdowns," the scandal involving the US elite in the Epstein case, a possible impeachment of Trump by the end of the year, and very likely lost elections for the Republicans perfectly complement the current picture of a political and structural crisis in America. In my opinion, the bulls have everything they need to resume their offensive during 2026.

For a "bearish" trend, a strong and stable positive information background for the US currency is needed, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Therefore, I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound. Too many risk factors remain hanging like dead weight over the dollar. Opening sell positions based on "bearish" patterns can be considered, but personally I would not advise traders to do so. I believe the recent decline of the pair is, to some extent, a random combination of circumstances.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

March 9 – the calendar of economic events contains no interesting entries. The influence of the information background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and advice for traders:

For the pound, the overall picture remains "bullish," although the short-term picture has turned "bearish." There are currently no relevant "bullish" patterns. There is only a "bearish" imbalance, to which the price must first return and receive a reaction before traders can consider the potential possibility of opening sell positions.

I should note that the pound's decline in recent weeks turned out to be strong enough to transform the "bullish" picture into a "bearish" one due to an unfortunate combination of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not promised every other day to attack Iran and had not sent warships to the Persian Gulf, and then had not started the war, we would hardly have seen such a strong decline. I believe that this decline may end just as unexpectedly as it began. In my opinion, the trend in recent weeks has not changed to "bearish."