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The GBP/USD pair also rose on Monday, though the day began with a new collapse. The drop was triggered by worsening circumstances in the oil market following new attacks in the Middle East. Oil prices surged to $120 per barrel; however, "peacemaker" and "savior of humanity" Donald Trump announced in the afternoon that he intends to stabilize the energy market and that the war in Iran is nearing its conclusion. As always, Trump provided no explanation of how the war in Iran could end soon and whether America would achieve its set goals and objectives. Let's remember that Trump passionately wishes to eliminate all of Iran's nuclear stockpiles to protect America from Iranian missiles. Concurrently, Trump would not mind changing the government in Iran to one that is more friendly to the U.S. However, it's unclear how to achieve these goals solely through missile strikes. Nonetheless, Trump might at any moment declare the complete destruction of nuclear facilities and enriched uranium stockpiles, and thus an unconditional victory for the U.S. Who will verify whether that is the case?
On the 5-minute timeframe, the European trading session on Monday did not go well, as the market was still reeling from the oil crisis. Movements were normalized only during the American session, when the pound rose confidently amid easing tensions in energy markets. By the end of the day, the British pound climbed to the area of 1.3437-1.3446 and, in our opinion, may finally start the formation of an upward trend.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a "geopolitical trend." There are no global fundamentals supporting medium-term dollar growth, so we expect the global upward trend from 2025 to continue in 2026, which may push the pair to at least 1.4000. In recent weeks, the situation has often not favored the British currency, as the market has been fully focused on the war in the Middle East, which has driven the U.S. dollar higher.
On Tuesday, beginner traders can open long positions if there is a bounce from the area of 1.3403-1.3407 or a consolidation above the range of 1.3437-1.3446. A price consolidation below the area of 1.3403-1.3407 will allow for opening short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. On Tuesday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while in the U.S., there are only minor ADP reports and existing home sales. However, movements during the day may still be volatile and chaotic.
Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.
Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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