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According to Deutsche Bank, the rise in oil prices acts like a tax on European consumers, one they pay to black gold producers in U.S. dollars. It's no surprise that the euro has become one of the main currencies hit hard among the G10 due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed Brent prices to $120 per barrel. Only Trump's statements about the imminent cessation of hostilities brought the "bears" back down to earth in EUR/USD.
Societe Generale notes that while exogenous shocks in the oil market tend to last relatively briefly—about a week or two—the price of black gold usually reaches its peak after three months. Reducing production volumes is easy, but restoring them is challenging. The market is increasingly convinced that even the cessation of hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran will not be able to bring prices back to pre-war levels by the end of 2026.
The Eurozone economy is particularly vulnerable to high Brent prices. It will stoke inflation, and the futures market is already pricing in an ECB deposit rate hike as early as July.
However, I personally doubt that the Eurozone economy can withstand tightening monetary policy. The European Central Bank forecasts 1.2% GDP growth in 2026, driven by domestic demand, rising household incomes, and improved financing conditions. The spike in oil prices puts a damper on this scenario.
Therefore, in the current situation, an increase in the deposit rate should be viewed as a negative for EUR/USD. Ultimately, the slowdown in the currency bloc's economy will force the ECB to lower borrowing costs. In this case, it is better to do nothing than to take hasty actions.
On the other hand, if events unfold differently than history suggests, the situation may change. Before the armed conflict in the Middle East, the oil market was dominated by bears. Currently, there is more than enough oil in the world; it just needs to be allowed to flow, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz. Its reopening will enable Gulf countries to quickly restore production, which will crash Brent and WTI prices. The euro will rise just as quickly as it previously fell.
Therefore, the markets are returning to the question of how long all of this will continue. If it ends soon, as Trump promised, it makes sense to buy the regional currency. If it drags on until May, as Polymarket predicts, expect trouble for the euro. In any case, Iran's perspective must also be taken into account.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart for EUR/USD shows a battle for the key pivot level of 1.164. If the "bulls" win and this level remains in buyers' hands, the focus should be on long positions. Conversely, if the price falls below this level and comes under the control of the bears, it will allow for selling euros against the U.S. dollar.
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