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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its rather modest recovery on Tuesday. No new discouraging or shocking news has come from the Middle East, and even the intensity of strikes against Iran and in response has decreased to minimal levels. Donald Trump's "allies" have finally realized that while Iran may be a backward country in economic, industrial, and infrastructural terms, it has enough weapons and missiles to destroy all military bases and oil and gas facilities within a distance of up to 2000 km. And who, one might ask, has benefited from the war with Iran? Did the US achieve their objectives? No. What benefits did Qatar or Saudi Arabia gain from what is happening? None. The oil and gas industry in the region is simply destroyed, and it will take months to recover.
The rest of the world has gained nothing from the war in Iran either; they are facing unprecedented increases in the prices of oil, gas, and all derived products. Central banks have been working for years to reduce inflation, and now they may once again confront an inflationary spiral simply because energy prices have skyrocketed. It turns out that no one has benefited from military actions. If Trump wanted to deal a blow against his sworn enemy, China, in such a sophisticated way, he missed the mark here as well. We have already mentioned that oil is extracted not just in the Middle East. China can easily purchase the necessary volumes from Russia. Yes, it will take a lot of time to establish logistics and supply chains. Yes, there will be an energy crisis; yes, it was easier and cheaper to do this in Iran. But Trump will not be able to halt China's development through such mundane methods as "we will cut you off from oil." Because cutting off oil won't be feasible.
Therefore, the leader of the White House, the Father of the American Nation, and the main peacemaker of the 21st century now urgently needs to decide what to do next. What will continuing the war in Iran achieve? Losses among American personnel, losses of equipment and weapons, and destruction of American military bases in the region. Oil prices will soar even higher, inflation will jump even more, and now all Americans will certainly know whom to thank for it.
However, very few U.S. residents are still wearing blinders. It has long been known that all of Trump's trade tariffs are paid by Americans themselves. Therefore, Trump can reduce taxes as much as he likes; he will then collect twice as much in tariffs. One would prefer not to recall a comedian's joking phrase, but frankly, we do not understand how the American people have stumbled into the same rake for the second time. Under Biden, the U.S. economy grew faster than under Trump, the labor market grew and created at least 130,000 jobs per month, the unemployment rate was at a minimum, America was not at war with anyone, and it maintained friendly relations with all trading partners. Trump came in under the banner of "Make America Great Again" and destroyed everything. But he claimed that he raised America from its knees.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of March 11 is 86 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1572 and 1.1744 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel points upward, indicating the maintenance of an upward trend. The CCI indicator has once again entered the oversold zone, signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend. A new "bullish" divergence has also formed.
S1 – 1.1597
S2 – 1.1475
R1 – 1.1719
R2 – 1.1841
R3 – 1.1963
The EUR/USD pair continues to correct within the upward trend. The global fundamental background remains extremely negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar lacks a fundamental basis for long-term growth. We are currently observing another global correction. With the price below the moving average, small shorts can be considered, targeting 1.1475 on technical grounds, given the complex situation in the Middle East. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with target levels of 1.1963 and 1.2085.
Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is strong;
The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) – the likely price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a reversal of the trend in the opposite direction is approaching.
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