11.03.202606:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 11? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, and the only significant one is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. This report has a direct impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but in recent weeks, everything in the markets has become so convoluted that it is unclear which data will take precedence for the Fed in determining the key interest rate. It is also uncertain how long the war in Iran will last, what consequences it will have for the American economy, and through what means the financing will occur. However, based on the latest macroeconomic reports, the Fed should resume its rate cuts, as the labor market has again shown very weak figures.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is again nothing to highlight among the fundamental events on Wednesday. There will be speeches from several representatives of the ECB and the Fed, but market attention is still primarily focused on the Middle East and Donald Trump, rather than on central banks and economic reports. In our view, the dollar can only be supported by geopolitics. The situation has improved slightly in recent days, leading the dollar to start falling immediately. The data on the U.S. labor market and unemployment in February have predictably disappointed, confirming the persistence of problems from 2025. Based on these reports, the American currency could have lost about 100 pips. And it is solely on these reports that the Fed might resume easing its monetary policy.

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, the market may witness any movement, as events in the Middle East continue to swing back and forth. There is escalation, yet there is also hope for de-escalation and stabilization. The euro can be traded today from the areas of 1.1584-1.1591 and 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3437-1.3446. We still see no grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency; however, the war in the Middle East may still provide support for the dollar multiple times.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.