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The price test at 1.1642 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair decreased by 17 pips.
Yesterday's reports about Iran's intentions to mine the Strait of Hormuz triggered a significant increase in interest in the U.S. dollar, indicating an escalation of the geopolitical conflict. This came just a day after President Trump stated that the war in the Middle East was progressing ahead of schedule and nearing its conclusion.
Regarding reports, we await figures on inflation in Germany today. This macroeconomic indicator plays a significant role in determining the future direction of the German economy and the euro's movement. If the released data shows a slowdown in inflation rates, it is very likely to have a negative impact on the euro's value. However, it is important to understand that the situation is not entirely predictable. Any significant deviations from the expected values, whether positive or negative, may provoke unpredictable reactions from market players. One must also consider the global situation, including geopolitical events.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1651 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1683. At point 1.1683, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to rise today following strong German data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1627 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1651 and 1.1683.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1627 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1597, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1651 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and could lead the market to reverse downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.1627 and 1.1597.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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