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USD/CAD has shown three consecutive days of upside momentum, renewing a weekly high above the 20-day SMA. That impulse is fueled by a mix of factors while market attention shifts to important macro releases from the United States and Canada.
Dollar buying continues amid growing recognition that the Iran-related rise in energy prices will rekindle inflation and force the Federal Reserve to delay monetary easing. Therefore, the market's reaction to the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed's key inflation gauge — is likely to be short-lived.
Also, durable goods orders, the JOLTS vacancies report, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations index are due today. Any of the reports could notably move the dollar.
Canada's monthly labour market data opens a window for short-term trading opportunities in USD/CAD during the North American session. At the same time, a pause in oil's advance appears to be weakening the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is approaching its October 2025 high, which further fuels USD/CAD.
However, the risk of supply disruptions could propel oil prices and slow the dollar's advance. From a technical standpoint, the pair is testing 1.36700 after clearing the 20-day SMA, and the relative strength index is gradually moving into positive territory, helping bulls overcome bears. Note, however, that daily-chart oscillators are mixed, and bulls will need to clear the 50-day SMA to gain decisive control over the market.
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