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On Monday, silver fluctuated above $79.50, trading at $79.90. The white metal is under pressure due to investor caution ahead of monetary policy announcements from major central banks this week, primarily the Federal Reserve.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets expect the Fed to maintain the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% at the meeting on Wednesday. If this occurs, it would mark a second consecutive pause following the previous cycle of easing monetary policy by the central bank.
An extended pause in easing monetary policy typically has a negative impact on assets like silver, as higher interest-rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.
Inflation risks stemming from the oil rally are also fueling market caution. The escalation in the Middle East has driven energy prices higher, intensifying concerns about persistent inflationary pressure.
The rise in gasoline prices in the US is already affecting household budgets, supporting inflation expectations and prompting central bank to maintain a tight monetary stance.
Geopolitics continues to dictate sentiment in the precious metals segment. The US strike on the Iranian oil terminal on Kharg Island has amplified fears of global energy supply disruptions. Although Washington speaks of a possible resolution to the conflict within a few weeks and the formation of a coalition for the Hormuz Strait, uncertainty in the financial markets remains, limiting silver's decline.
Such geopolitical turbulence could stimulate demand for safe-haven assets like silver, cushioning the pullback even amid pressure from the Fed's monetary outlook.
From a technical perspective, silver has halted its three-day decline, but oscillators remain in negative territory, suggesting the advantage remains with bears. If prices surpass the 20- and 50-day SMAs, bulls will have a chance to gain an advantage in the market.
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