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The test of the 159.17 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had fallen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the bearish potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Long positions on a bounce from 158.86 allowed for a gain of about 30 pips from the market.
Yesterday's discussions about the possibility of the US and Iran returning to negotiations slightly weakened the dollar's position against the Japanese yen; however, it did not significantly change the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. Traders were more likely to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of important central bank meetings in Japan and the US, so no significant market moves are expected at this time.
It is important to note that the strengthening of risk assets has largely been driven by speculative sentiment and rumors. The lack of official confirmations and further specifics from both Washington and Tehran leaves considerable room for market volatility. Financial markets will remain extremely sensitive to any statements or actions that could alter the current situation. Therefore, despite yesterday's optimism, it is crucial to continue closely monitoring the developments.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches an entry point around 159.41 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.71 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.71, I plan to exit my longs and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). The best time to resume buying the pair is during corrections and significant USD/JPY drawdowns. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.22 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 159.41 and 159.71.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level to 159.22 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be level 158.86, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). It's best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 159.41 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 159.22 and 158.86.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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