Relevance až do 02:00 2026-03-19 UTC--4
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Trade Analysis and Advice for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 159.07 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Long positions on the bounce from 158.76 allowed for approximately 30 pips of profit to be taken from the market.
Against the backdrop of decreasing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, demand for the US dollar is also weakening, providing an opportunity for the Japanese yen to rise. Positive data from Japan led to new yen buying. Although demand for cars in China dipped again, Trump's new tariffs on car imports to the US helped increase volumes. According to the Ministry of Finance, total exports in February rose by 4.2% year-on-year after a significant jump in the previous month. This result exceeded the average analyst forecast of a 1.9% increase. Imports rose by 10.2%, slightly below the anticipated figure, and the trade balance, without adjustments, showed a surplus of £57.3 billion.
It is clear that the future direction of the USD/JPY pair will be determined by American data, so strong technical changes in the trading instrument are not expected in the first half of the day.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 158.84 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.10 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 159.10, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and serious dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 158.58 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 158.84 and 159.10 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the 158.58 level (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.33 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 158.84 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 158.58 and 158.33 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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