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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday reversed in favor of the British pound and rose toward the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465. A rebound from this zone will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a return to the support level of 1.3341–1.3352. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3465 level will increase the chances of continued growth toward the next resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539.
The wave situation has once again started to turn "bullish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. The news background for the pound had been weak in recent months, while geopolitics gave bears a clear advantage in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, but this week the situation has begun to shift somewhat in favor of the bulls.
Thursday's news background clearly supported the bulls. While a day earlier the Federal Reserve outlined rather "hawkish" prospects for 2026, yesterday the Bank of England supported the pound sterling with statements about its readiness to raise interest rates if necessary. Thus, the ECB and the Bank of England signaled their willingness to tighten monetary policy, unlike the Fed. This provided bulls with an overall advantage on Wednesday and Thursday. The British regulator also expects strong inflation growth amid the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In the MPC vote, not a single member supported a rate cut, although a month and a half ago four out of nine did. The Bank of England's stance has shifted sharply.
The inflation problem facing the Bank of England is leading traders not only to expect monetary tightening in 2026 but to be almost certain of two rate hikes. According to updated forecasts, inflation will accelerate by 3% in the second quarter and by 3.5% in the third quarter. Thus, genuinely "hawkish" prospects are emerging for the regulator, although its stance was recently considered "dovish." If the situation in the Middle East does not worsen, bulls may have every chance to launch a full-scale advance.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel. Thus, the "bearish" trend may be over, and growth may continue toward the 0.0% correction level at 1.3786. A consolidation below the support level of 1.3369–1.3391 would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.3145. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week, which no longer looks accidental under current conditions. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,229, while short positions increased by 1,282. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 49,000 versus 133,000. In recent months, bears have more often dominated, although the situation with euro contracts is the opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything will depend not on economic indicators or Trump's trade policy, but on the duration and scale of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, first a correction began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East intensified almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On March 20, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Friday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with targets at 1.3341–1.3352 and 1.3214. Buying opportunities existed upon a close above the 1.3341–1.3352 level with a target of 1.3437–1.3465, which has already been reached. New buying opportunities may arise upon a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3341 to 1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.2104 to 1.3786 on the 4-hour chart.
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