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Over the past five days, the GBP/USD pair has shown the following movements: a drop of 110 points, a rise of 180 points, a drop of 120 points, a rise of 200 points, and another drop of 70 points. As we can see, the direction changes almost every day, and trader activity is extremely high. Traders are shifting back and forth as the news flow changes daily.
Last week it became known that the Bank of England is no longer leaning toward monetary easing, as inflation in the UK may accelerate significantly starting in March. Thus, the British regulator is once again shifting toward combating high consumer price growth. Yesterday, buyers were supported by Donald Trump, who adopted a de-escalation-oriented and conciliatory tone toward Iran, which pleased everyone except the U.S. dollar. However, by Tuesday, traders began to question whether Trump's statement on Monday had simply been market manipulation.
At the same time, the bullish trend in the pound remains intact without any reservations. Bearish imbalance 17 can be considered invalidated, and the previous minor imbalance has already produced two price reactions and can be considered worked out. Does this mean buyers now have an opportunity to move higher without resistance?
However, such a move requires support from geopolitics. Over the past few days, the situation in the Middle East has changed very little. Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states continue to exchange missile and drone strikes, EU countries are urgently trying to address an emerging energy crisis, and central banks are preparing for rising inflation. Thus, neither buyers nor sellers currently have clear support. The geopolitical factor continues to favor sellers, while buyers are supported by the fact that this factor cannot support sellers indefinitely.
At present, there are no bullish patterns, and without them traders have no basis for opening long positions. Given how the price fluctuates sharply in both directions each day, it may even be better that there are no patterns. The probability of another decline in both pairs remains fairly high, and all discussions about a potential buyer-driven move are still just assumptions without confirmation.
The bullish trend in the pound remains in place. As long as it holds (above 1.3012), I would focus more on bullish signals. However, there are currently no such patterns or signals, and geopolitics continues to weigh heavily on both the euro and the pound.
Tuesday's news background was mixed for the pound, as PMI data for the services and manufacturing sectors showed divergent dynamics. Therefore, today's decline cannot be attributed to economic data.
In the U.S., the overall news environment remains such that, in the long term, little can be expected other than dollar weakness. Even the conflict involving Iran does not change this. The situation for the U.S. dollar remains difficult in the long term and only positive in the short term. U.S. labor market data continues to disappoint more often than it reassures. Trump's military actions, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the criminal case against Jerome Powell, government shutdowns, the scandal involving U.S. elites related to the Epstein case, the possibility of Trump's impeachment by the end of the year, and likely Republican election losses all contribute to the picture of a political and structural crisis in the U.S.
In my view, buyers have everything needed to resume their advance in 2026, but at the moment traders are fully focused on geopolitics and the energy crisis.
For a bearish trend to develop, a strong and stable positive news background for the dollar is needed—something difficult to expect under Donald Trump and unlikely to be provided by geopolitics. Although at this point, nothing can be ruled out. If a large-scale global conflict were to begin and spread beyond the Middle East into Eurasia, the dollar would likely strengthen significantly and for a prolonged period. However, I remain cautiously optimistic that this will not happen. In that case, the dollar's growth potential is limited by the negative nature of events in the Middle East.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK
On March 25, the economic calendar contains only one entry, but it is relatively important. The news flow is expected to influence market sentiment throughout the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice
For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish, but there are currently no active bullish patterns. The sharp decline in recent weeks was largely due to an unfavorable combination of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not initiated conflict in the Middle East, such strong dollar growth would likely not have occurred. I believe this decline may end as unexpectedly as it began.
However, at present, the bearish move cannot yet be considered over. Imbalance 17 has been invalidated, but this has not led to the emergence of new bullish patterns.
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