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After a nine-day series of declines, precious metals, particularly gold, showed a long-awaited slight increase. This turnaround is seen as a response from traders to signals indicating that the United States may choose a diplomatic path to resolve the tense situation in the Middle East. The reduction of geopolitical tension is traditionally a factor supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The price of gold exhibited a noticeable increase, surpassing the $4,600 per ounce mark, demonstrating a rise of 2.8%. This increase followed the rally recorded in the previous trading session when the precious metal had already gained 1.6%. Such a two-day positive trend indicates a clear shift in market sentiment, with fears of conflict escalation giving way to cautious optimism over diplomatic efforts.
These indicators reflect classic market behavior under uncertainty. When geopolitical risks rise, investors tend to shift their assets into more stable instruments, such as gold. Conversely, when hopes for de-escalation and peaceful resolution of conflicts emerge, risk appetite returns, leading to capital outflows from safe-haven assets and increases in stock markets. In this case, diplomatic signals from the US appear to have been sufficient to trigger this transition.
To support this, the US presented a 15-point plan aimed at helping to end the war with Iran, while China has called for negotiations with Tehran. Several media outlets report that Washington and regional intermediaries are exploring the possibility of high-level negotiations as soon as this Thursday.
However, in the short term, gold will remain sensitive to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, the US dollar, and geopolitical events.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,591. This will set the target at $4,647, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,708. If gold prices decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,531. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,481, with a potential further decline to $4,432.
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