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The price test at 1.3343 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by more than 20 pips.
The most significant event during the first half of the day will be the release of the retail sales volume change report. The dynamics of retail sales, including fuel expenditures, provide a more comprehensive view of consumer activity, reflecting both the volume of goods sold and the amount spent on their purchase, including energy resources. This allows for an assessment of the overall cash flow in the retail sector. Conversely, the indicator that ignores fuel expenditures serves as a more relevant and accurate measure of consumer purchasing power. Positive data could already lead to a recovery in the pound in the first half of the day.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3348 (green line on the chart), targeting growth towards 1.3370 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3370, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the pound to rise only after receiving good data today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3333 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.3348 and 1.3370.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3333 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3312 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound could return if the data is negative. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3348 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3333 and 1.3312.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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