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During Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after consolidating below the 100.0% corrective level of 1.1577, heading toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.1440. A consolidation above the 1.1577 level would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1696.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed upward wave exceeded the peak of the previous wave by only a few points, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the trend is currently shifting toward a "bullish" one, but very slowly and uncertainly. Donald Trump's actions in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military operations in the region involving dozens of countries, allowing the US dollar to count on further strengthening.
On Thursday, the news background once again brought traders only geopolitical developments. Economic reports on consumer confidence in Germany and US jobless claims did not attract traders' attention. However, in the evening, US President Donald Trump made a new statement regarding Iran. Trump said that at the request of Iranian leadership, he is postponing the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure for 10 days. Recall that earlier Trump had delayed the decision to strike Iran's energy facilities by 5 days, and that period expired today. At the moment, it is difficult to understand what this means: preparation for negotiations, actual negotiations, or simply buying time. It is obvious that neither Iran nor the United States is truly eager to continue hostilities. However, official Tehran completely rejects any negotiations with Washington, while Donald Trump continues to insist that talks with the "right people in Iran" are taking place. It is difficult to determine whom to believe. Thus, currency market traders are in no rush to draw conclusions and prefer to wait for official and confirmed information. Over the past week, trading activity has declined significantly, and bulls have still not been able to launch a full-scale offensive.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1617 and rebounded from it. As a result, a decline toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474 has begun. A "bullish" trend will become possible after the euro closes above the downward trend channel. The first target for bulls is the 1.1706 level. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 52,800 long positions and opened 31,212 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, but in recent weeks we have observed an active reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 213,000, while short positions total 191,000. The advantage of the bulls has almost completely disappeared in just a few weeks.
Overall, in the long term, major players continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Undoubtedly, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment in different ways. At present, the market's attention is focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to intensify and expand geographically. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the US dollar is extracting maximum benefit from this situation.
News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On March 27, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is of little interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be weak or absent.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.1577 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1440. These positions can be held open today. Buy positions may become possible after the pair closes above the 1.1577 level, with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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