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Trump is not going to calm down, and the markets are reacting accordingly.
The US dollar has declined, while the euro, pound, and other risk assets have sharply risen after Donald Trump stated yesterday that the US would end its campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, regardless of whether Tehran agrees to a deal with Washington. This statement was made against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and recent attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which Washington blames on Iran.
The markets took the President's words as a signal of imminent de-escalation of the conflict, leading to diminished demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency. However, this drop in the dollar is unlikely to have far-reaching consequences, as there is no real evidence of a winding down of the war in the Middle East, and we see the active redeployment of ground troops to this region.
Today, the first half of the day will be marked by the release of Eurozone economic data, which may significantly influence market sentiment and the dynamics of currency pairs. Investors will focus on two key indicators: the manufacturing PMI and February unemployment data.
It is expected that the PMI, which reflects the state of the manufacturing sector, will show further slowing or stagnation. Current economic conditions, including ongoing supply chain issues, rising energy prices, and inflationary pressure, create an unfavorable environment for manufacturers. At the same time, Eurozone unemployment data will also be released. While the region's labor market is expected to remain relatively stable, unexpected deviations from forecasts could lead to increased volatility.
As for the pound, traders will likely pay close attention to the UK manufacturing PMI data. This report is typically one of the key indicators of economic health, reflecting purchasing managers' sentiments and expectations for future trends. The results could significantly impact the value of the British pound, and later, the Bank of England will release the minutes and summary of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting. This document usually contains more detailed information about the discussions during the meeting, as well as the reasons for certain decisions on interest rates and other monetary policy measures. Special attention will be paid to comments on inflation risks, growth prospects, and the central bank's possible future steps toward raising rather than lowering rates, as previously expected.
If the data meet economists' expectations, it would be prudent to operate based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.
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