01.04.202609:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Above $4700

The price of gold continued its three-day rise yesterday amid signals that the war in the Middle East may be nearing its conclusion, as traders shifted their focus from interest rate hikes to the long-term risk of economic downturn, which had previously fueled gold prices. The market, responding to the easing of geopolitical tensions, is reassessing its short-term priorities.

The sharp drop in interest in gold as a safe-haven asset was largely driven by concerns about the potential expansion of the conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to rising inflation and a rapid global increase in interest rates. However, as the risks of conflict escalation diminish, investors are returning to gold, as the repercussions of the war in the Middle East will be felt for a long time in economies that rely on energy imports.

The price of gold rose by 1.2% and exceeded $4700 per ounce, continuing a 3.5% surge from the previous session, after which it partially compensated for losses.

As I noted, President Donald Trump stated yesterday that he expects the war with Iran to end within two to three weeks, suggesting that America has largely achieved its military objectives and will allow other countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These words sparked noticeable activity in financial markets, reflecting hopes for a swift de-escalation of tensions in one of the world's key regions. The American leader's statement, delivered amid diplomatic efforts, was seen as a signal of a potential reduction in risks to energy supply. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the global oil market, could stabilize energy prices and positively impact the global economy, slowing down inflationary processes.

The appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset typically resurfaces when the focus shifts from inflation to risks for economic growth. However, given that the conflict is still far from over, the Federal Reserve has every opportunity to raise rates in this cycle.

Despite the recovery in recent days, the nearly 12% decline in gold prices in March marked the worst monthly performance since October 2008. The Middle Eastern war, which has now been ongoing for five weeks, has upended global markets and reduced the supply of energy and other goods, raising fears of a sharp rise in inflation that has overshadowed gold's traditional appeal as a refuge for capital.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4708. This will allow for targeting $4771, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4835. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control at $4647. If successful, breaching this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4591, with a prospect of reaching $4531.