01.04.202620:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

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The EUR/USD pair has been rising for a second consecutive day, reaching weekly highs amid improved risk sentiment following signals of a possible end to the war between the U.S. and Iran. This has weakened the U.S. dollar and pushed the euro higher.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to shape market sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, stated that the United States would "leave Iran very soon," referring to a potential end to military operations within two to three weeks. These remarks were echoed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who expressed the "necessary will" to end the conflict, provided that security guarantees are given. However, Trump emphasized on Truth Social that Washington would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, maintaining the threat of continued operations.

U.S. data failed to impress the market. Traders reacted cautiously to the economic releases: the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (versus the forecast of 52.5), ADP employment increased by 62K jobs (above expectations of 40K), and retail sales in February jumped by 0.6% month-over-month. These figures confirm the resilience of the economy but did not strengthen the dollar amid geopolitical optimism.

At the same time, policymakers remain flexible. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that the Fed's policy is "at the lower end of the neutral range" and well-positioned to handle war-related risks, allowing for scenarios of both rate hikes and cuts. ECB official Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the central bank is ready to act as new data emerges, emphasizing that a prolonged conflict would bring the eurozone closer to an "adverse scenario."

From a technical perspective, the pair has broken above the 20-day SMA, increasing the chances of further growth. The Relative Strength Index has also moved into positive territory. However, for full control of the market, bulls need to overcome the 100- and 200-day SMAs near the psychological level of 1.1700.

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