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The test of the price at 1.1615 occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. The second test at 1.1615 coincided with the MACD entering the overbought area, prompting the implementation of Sell Scenario #2 for the euro. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 25 pips.
Yesterday's strong data on the US labor market and manufacturing sector did not provide as much support to the dollar as today's speech by Trump before the nation. The significant strengthening of the US dollar was a response from financial markets to contradictory statements by US President Donald Trump. Just twenty-four hours after he expressed confidence in the imminent end of military operations in Iran, Trump presented a completely different perspective, hinting at the possibility of delivering a powerful strike within the next two to three weeks. Yesterday's assumptions about a decline in geopolitical tension that contributed to the dollar's weakening gave way to fears of renewed escalation of the conflict.
Today's trading promises to be active. In the first half of the day, investors will turn their attention to Italy, where retail sales figures are due. This report will provide insight into the resilience of domestic demand in Italy, which is significant not only for Italy but also for the European currency union as a whole. Simultaneously with the Italian data, the European Central Bank's analytical bulletin is scheduled for release. Market participants will thoroughly examine every aspect of the document for signals of possible adjustments to key rates or other measures to stimulate the economy.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy the euro at the price of 1.1538 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1560. At the level of 1.1560, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will rise sharply today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today after two consecutive tests at 1.1513, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1538 and 1.1560 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1513 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1487, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today after two consecutive tests at 1.1538, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1513 and 1.1487 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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