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Bitcoin continues a kind of upward movement that is actually a correction and has lasted for one and a half months. This is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. A liquidity pool below remains untouched, and the price is 90% likely to visit it. On the 4?hour timeframe, it is clear that the price has returned to a sideways channel. Thus, our view remains unchanged — the downtrend is not over, the market is in a pause.
Meanwhile, well-known crypto investor and financier Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin is unlikely to return to its ATH this year. In his view, in September–October of this year, Bitcoin will return to its lows or slightly below, where the bottom of the downtrend will be formed. After that, a recovery will begin within a new "bull" cycle. Mr. Brandt also said he expects to see a new all?time high in Q2 next year. Further movement of Bitcoin will depend on whether it can expand its role in the global financial system. If "digital gold" ceases to be only an investment instrument, its price could rise many times over.
Interestingly, Brandt's forecast is based solely on the observation that after each bull trend, Bitcoin went into about a one?year correction during which it lost up to 70–80% of its value. The next September–October is exactly one year from the start of the current bear trend. Brandt did not explain why Bitcoin cannot fall, for example, to $30,000, nor did he explain the basis for a return to $126,000 next year. Many experts continue to build their forecasts purely on faith in Bitcoin's perpetual rise.
Bitcoin continues forming a full-fledged downtrend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. But even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. Of the POI areas at this time, only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe can be noted, within which a signal may form in the coming hours. On the 4?hour timeframe, Bitcoin's price action again shows all the characteristics of a range, so it's worth monitoring only deviations from the boundaries of the sideways channel.
On the daily timeframe, a downtrend and a correction against it continue to form. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the move triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. After this move, Ethereum has already plunged about 55%, or roughly $2,500. In the near term, Ethereum may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. On the 4?hour timeframe, Ethereum has worked off all recent FVGs quite well, and last night it reacted to a new bearish FVG, from which the daily downtrend may resume. Bitcoin may also react to a bearish FVG on the daily timeframe. However, Bitcoin also remains range?bound...
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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