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The price test at 1.1547 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair only declined by 10 pips.
Yesterday's trading was marked by noticeable growth in the US dollar. The rise was directly correlated with the release of data on the PMI index for the United States services sector. The index value was recorded as confidently surpassing the threshold of 54.0 points, a clear indicator of resilience and active development in this area of the economy. Financial markets reacted to this positive information without delay. Traders, interpreting the strong data as evidence of the American economy's robust health, increased their investments in dollar assets. This, in turn, increased demand for the dollar and, consequently, led to its significant strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
Today, during the first half of the day, market participants' attention will be focused on the release of significant macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. Special interest is expected to focus on indicators related to business activity in the services sector. The publication of this data will allow for an assessment of current growth rates and an understanding of whether the positive trend observed in previous periods continues. Additionally, investors will pay attention to the Sentix investor confidence index. This survey reflects market participants' expectations regarding future economic conditions. The combination of these three metrics will provide the market with a complete set of information necessary for making informed investment decisions.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1544 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1568. At point 1.1568, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will rise sharply today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1529 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1544 and 1.1568 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1529 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the war in the Middle East escalates. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1544 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the support levels at 1.1529 and 1.1507 is expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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