09.04.202604:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD Pair on April 9. The Music Didn't Last Long, or Was It Someone's Mistake?

The GBP/USD currency pair moved in the same direction as the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. Throughout the day, the British pound clearly aimed to recover a large portion of the losses from the past two months. Recall that during this period, the pound lost about as much as the euro, but it often seemed to drop more significantly. Just yesterday, the British pound easily rose by 200 points.

However, will the market be misled by its own hopes? Yesterday afternoon, explosions were heard again in the Middle East. It became known that the U.S. attacked an oil refinery on the Iranian island of Kharg. At least, that is the information reported by the media. Shortly after, it was reported that Israel began bombing Lebanon, and Iran responded by targeting facilities in the UAE and Kuwait. Honestly, it seems that the ceasefire has ended. Of course, it's difficult to judge who broke the ceasefire first, why they did it, and who was involved in the ceasefire at all. But the fact remains that all participants in the conflict have resumed launching missiles.

Naturally, one would like to think that this is merely a military mistake. Perhaps someone in the military command did not receive the order to cease military actions or something similar. However, the mass bombardment of several countries in the Persian Gulf seems anything but a mistake. Interestingly, the currency market hardly reacted to the new airstrikes—at least, during the first few hours after they occurred. Still, we can't know all the details of the so-called ceasefire. It is possible that the agreement was reached only between the U.S. and Iran, while Israel took no obligations. It may be a clever move by Donald Trump to lull the vigilance of his Iranian opponent. Trump seemed to accept Iran's list of demands without much resistance.

In any case, it can only be said that the ceasefire in the Middle East is quite uncertain and ephemeral. If it turns out today that the ceasefire was merely an April Fool's joke by Trump (albeit slightly delayed), the markets could quickly revert to their previous state. However, let's reiterate: in the first hours after the attack, the markets did not react at all to the new hostilities. Let's hope for the best.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the British pound has recovered nearly to the 35th level, while the highest price over the last 4 years was 1.3868. This means that the British pound only has about 400 points to reach this year's highs, similar to the euro. In recent weeks, both the euro and the pound have been falling rather reluctantly, and we warned that the uptrends on the daily TF remain in both cases. And on one geopolitical factor, the dollar will not go far.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of April 9, is 112 pips, which is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move within a range limited by the levels of 1.3328 and 1.3552. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downwards, indicating a potential trend change. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought territory, warning of a possible downward correction in the near future.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3428
• S2 – 1.3367
• S3 – 1.3306

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3489
• R2 – 1.3550
• R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its downward movement for a month and a half, but its long-term prospects have not changed. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the dollar to grow in 2026. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. When the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3144 based on geopolitical grounds. In recent months, nearly all news and events have turned against the British pound, leading to a prolonged downward trend. Geopolitics remains the key factor.

Explanations For Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will remain over the next day based on current volatility indicators.
• CCI Indicator: Its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.