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The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite calmly throughout Thursday. The market continued to ignore any fundamental and macroeconomic events, and the rise of the European currency effectively halted as soon as rockets were launched in the Middle East again. Recall that a ceasefire was announced on Wednesday night. How much meaning did traders invest in that word! Too much! Most traders believed that the ceasefire meant a complete cessation of hostilities from all sides of the conflict. In practice, it became clear that senior diplomats from the U.S., Iran, and Israel simply do not know how to come to an agreement and what points should be included in any deal.
The American trading session on Thursday began with Israel launching hundreds of rockets towards Lebanon. Shortly after, Jerusalem stated that it supports a two-week ceasefire with Iran, but Lebanon is not included in this deal. Thus, it is perfectly permissible to bomb Lebanon. It was later revealed that American missiles struck an oil refinery in Iran, and Iran responded by firing missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait. It is impossible to determine who broke the ceasefire and who did so first. However, the outcome is clear— the Strait of Hormuz is once again blocked, and Iran accuses the U.S. and Israel of undermining the agreement.
After Donald Trump woke up and saw what was happening, he immediately unleashed new angry tirades against Tehran. The U.S. president mentioned that American ships and military forces would not leave the Persian Gulf region until Iran adheres to the reached agreement. If systematic violations of the ceasefire occur, America will strike back with devastating force.
However, alongside this, the U.S. continues to negotiate with Iran, and soon delegations from both countries are expected to meet in person to discuss the terms of a long-term peace agreement. Thus, it is clear that the ceasefire is quite ephemeral and decorative. It seems that this ceasefire is needed only so that Trump can declare complete victory for the U.S. over Iran, which, in fact, he has already claimed several times. The U.S. will demand the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz (according to the agreements) and then leave the region. Who fights next will no longer concern Trump. He needs to emerge as the victor in this conflict as quickly as possible and prepare for the 2026 congressional elections.
Thus, we do not believe that the war in the Middle East is over. Most likely, it will continue in one form or another for a long time. However, if the intensity of hostilities decreases even somewhat, and at least a portion of oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, that will already be a small victory. By the way, oil prices have not fallen for long. In recent weeks, they have ranged between $93 and $113 per barrel (Brent grades), and are currently trading at about $95-$96 per barrel. Therefore, it cannot be said that the energy crisis has been overcome.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of April 10, is 77 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1630 and 1.1784 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, warning of a potential downward pullback in the near future.
The EUR/USD pair remains in a downward trend, driven by geopolitical factors. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; however, for more than a month, the market has focused solely on geopolitics, making all other factors virtually irrelevant. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1353. When the price is above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1784 and 1.1841. For a stronger upward movement to occur, the geopolitical backdrop needs to begin improving.
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