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The price test at 158.88 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 20 pips.
Unfavorable U.S. labor market data and positive expectations for a peace agreement in the U.S.-Iran negotiations exerted significant pressure on the dollar. It is assumed that weak economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate hikes, which has somewhat weakened the bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair. However, today the dollar strengthened against the yen following news of a decline in the index of purchasing prices for goods used by Japanese corporations. Preliminary data released by the Bank of Japan showed that the index, which reflects the cost of goods imported by companies, rose only 0.8% from the previous month. This slowdown in growth, while seemingly minor, carries important implications for the financial market, directly affecting the exchange rate dynamics of the national currency.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 159.38 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.69 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.69, I intend to exit the long positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.18 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to resistance levels of 159.38 and 159.69 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.18 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.78 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.38 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to support levels of 159.18 and 158.78 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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