10.04.202611:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast. Focus on Peace Talks Between the US and Iran

During Friday's European trading session, gold (XAU/USD) is holding above the round level of $4700. The precious metal is moving within an established range, as market participants await the release of fresh U.S. consumer inflation data before taking more decisive short-term positions.

The market expects March's Consumer Price Index (CPI) to continue rising amid a surge in oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Such dynamics could further reduce the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the FOMC meeting minutes from March 17–18, published on Wednesday, Fed officials remain cautious due to the risk of increasing inflationary pressure caused by rising energy costs. Additional support for the U.S. dollar comes from geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn limits gold's upward potential.

Iran has temporarily halted shipping through this strategically important route in response to ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that Tehran is mismanaging the region's oil resources, accusing it of violating previously reached agreements. The U.S. leader also warned of a possible resumption of strikes if current negotiations fail, keeping escalation risks in the region alive. This factor supports oil prices, heightens inflation concerns, and strengthens expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. As a result, gold is losing some of its appeal as a non-yielding asset, although the lack of significant selling pressure forces bears to remain cautious.

At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the start of direct talks with Lebanon, aimed at resolving a key disputed issue within the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. A State Department representative confirmed that the meeting will take place in Washington next week. Additionally, phased negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled for Friday evening and Saturday, raising expectations of partial stabilization. These developments are limiting the dollar's gains and helping to cap gold's downside.From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair maintains a neutral-to-bearish bias, remaining within the range between the round levels of $4700 and $4800. Oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory and remain in the negative zone, though the Relative Strength Index is closer to neutral, indicating that the balance of power between bulls and bears is nearly equal. The nearest resistance lies at the $4800 level, while gold has found support at the 20-day SMA near $4700. A break below would expose the next support at $4600, while the next resistance stands at $4860. However, ahead of U.S. data releases, traders are exercising caution in all directions.