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The price test at 1.1802 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1802 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, leading to the implementation of Scenario #2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair only declined by 10 pips.
The European currency rose in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks on the end of the conflict with Iran. He stated that there are no plans to resume military actions and expressed hope for a prompt signing of a peace treaty. This statement, made amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, proved to be an unexpected signal of de-escalation, which markets welcomed with optimism. However, despite the initial positive effect, many experts point out that Trump's words may be largely declaratory, and the actual process of achieving peace might prove much more complex—especially with the ongoing military buildup in the Persian Gulf.
Today, attention will focus on changes in industrial production volumes in the Eurozone. These figures will serve as an important indicator of the state of the manufacturing sector, which holds a significant share of the single currency's economy. The dynamics of industrial production may reflect current recovery or slowdown trends and outline further prospects. Concurrently, data on Italy's consumer price index will be published. Analyzing CPI in Italy will help assess how inflationary pressure is felt in one of the leading countries, which, in turn, may affect the overall inflation dynamics of the entire bloc.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at a price around 1.1802 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1841. At the point of 1.1841, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is reasonable to expect the euro to rise as the trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1785 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1802 and 1.1841.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1785 (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1742 level, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return as U.S.-Iran relations deteriorate. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1802 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1785 and 1.1742.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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