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The price test at 1.3558 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.
Weak U.S. data, indicating that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in March came in much lower than economists' forecasts, put pressure on the dollar, leading to a strengthening of the British pound. The slower growth of the PPI below expected levels surprised many market participants who were betting on a possible acceleration of inflation in March following the onset of the U.S.-Iran war.
Another speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will take place today. His speech yesterday did not address monetary policy issues. It is likely that Bailey's omission was a calculated move to analyze the market's reaction to other economic data. Today's speech will likely provide clearer signals that market participants can use in their trading strategies. Special attention will be paid to statements on inflationary pressures and the labor market, as these factors play a critical role in shaping monetary policy decisions.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3578 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3605 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3605, I plan to exit the market and sell the pound in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is reasonable to expect the pound to rise today within the bullish market. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3556 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposing levels of 1.3578 and 1.3605.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after updating the level to 1.3556 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3529 level, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return if tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3578 when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.3556 and 1.3529.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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