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The NZD/USD pair is struggling to build on its recent strong gains and is fluctuating within a narrow range just above the 0.5900 level. Nevertheless, spot prices remain close to yesterday's high and are poised for further growth.
The US dollar halted its decline after reaching its lowest level since early March on Tuesday, amid uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, which is negatively affecting the NZD/USD pair.
Iran's ambassador to the UN described the US-imposed blockade, which came into effect on Monday, as a serious violation of Tehran's sovereignty, potentially undermining an already fragile ceasefire. Moreover, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged retaliatory actions, keeping geopolitical risks elevated and thereby supporting the dollar.
Meanwhile, investors continue to hope that opportunities for a diplomatic resolution remain open, given the high likelihood of renewed peace talks between the United States and Iran. US Vice President J.D. Vance expressed cautious optimism, noting that discussions are ongoing and that Washington is aiming for a broader agreement focused on integrating and reshaping economic relations with Iran. This, along with weakening expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, is limiting the dollar's recovery efforts and creating favorable conditions for NZD/USD bulls.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March rose less than expected, easing concerns about inflationary pressure from the surge in energy prices caused by the conflict and softening hawkish expectations. As a result, declining US Treasury yields and a generally positive risk sentiment are undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the NZD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the pair has broken above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in an attempt to consolidate above the round level of 0.5900. If the pair holds above these levels, the path of least resistance will be upward. The Relative Strength Index has also moved into positive territory, favoring the bulls. However, as oscillators remain mixed, caution is still warranted when opening new positions.
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