16.04.202609:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Hits $4,900

The price of gold continues to test the $4,900 mark amid efforts to diplomatically resolve the war with Iran, which has eased inflationary concerns despite tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The price of gold has increased by 1% to nearly $4,900 per ounce, compensating for much of the losses from the previous session. Media reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire for two weeks to give more time for negotiations to end the conflict that has destabilized global markets. However, the movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remains hindered: the U.S. is blocking Iranian ships, while Tehran keeps the waterway closed to most other forms of transport.

Despite diplomatic efforts, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, fueling underlying investor concerns. The tension in this strategically important region, which is crucial to global oil supplies, continues to weigh on market sentiment. Even a temporary ceasefire cannot completely dispel fears of escalation, leading a significant portion of capital to remain in safe-haven assets.

The precious metals market, which traditionally acts as an indicator of geopolitical instability and inflation expectations, reacts sensitively to any signals of change. The rise in gold prices, albeit temporary, indicates that investors are not yet ready to completely abandon risk hedging. The ongoing blockade of Iranian vessels by U.S. forces, along with Tehran's counteractions, creates a predictable but steady stream of concerns.

Further price dynamics for gold will directly depend on the success of diplomatic negotiations and the resolution of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. A genuine easing of tensions, rather than just a ceasefire, could spur increased interest in gold, as it would ease inflationary pressures and reduce the risk of central bank rate hikes. An escalation of the conflict would have the opposite effect.

According to the Associated Press, both sides have reached a preliminary agreement to continue diplomatic negotiations after the unsuccessful discussions in Pakistan over the weekend. President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of renewed hostilities on Tuesday, stating that the war, which has lasted nearly seven weeks, is close to an end.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to break the nearest resistance at $4,835. This will allow targeting $4,893, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,913. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $4,771. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,708, with a potential decline to $4,647.