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The wave structure has shifted to a "bullish" pattern. The latest upward wave has broken the previous peak (and is still forming), while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, but then the geopolitical background began to improve, boosting bulls' confidence. For several weeks, the pound traded sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465, but this week it managed to break out of that range.
There was essentially no news background on Wednesday. However, on Thursday morning, two reports were released in the UK—the only ones this week. GDP grew by 0.5% month-over-month and 0.5% over three months, exceeding forecasts of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Industrial production also increased more than traders expected—by 0.5% month-over-month versus a forecast of +0.3%. Annual industrial production figures were also better than expected at -0.4% versus -0.9%. Thus, UK statistics supported the bulls on Thursday morning. However, we did not see a strong reaction to these reports, as bulls had already been attacking almost daily over the past two weeks. Traders believe that a two-week ceasefire could be the beginning of a path toward a full peace agreement, and that negotiations between Iran and the US may resume soon, according to statements by Donald Trump. As a result, traders no longer feel the need for a "safe haven," which led to a 400-point drop in the US dollar and a bullish advance.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, bulls have finally gone on the offensive. A consolidation above the 38.2% retracement level (1.3540) allows for expectations of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% (1.3664). A bearish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, which may allow the dollar to regain some ground. However, a rebound from the 1.3540 level could enable bulls to continue their advance.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions decreased by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now roughly 47,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing short positions and reducing longs, leading to a strong imbalance. Bears have dominated in recent weeks, which raises no questions given the geopolitical context.
I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, there was initially a correction within a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver of the US dollar's growth.
News Calendar for the US and UK:
On April 16, the economic calendar contains four events, two of which have already been released. The impact of the news background on market sentiment for the rest of the day may be weak or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.3596 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437. Buying was possible after a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3604–1.3620. The first target has been reached. The second target was revised to 1.3596 and also reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above the 1.3611–1.3620 level, with a target of 1.3700.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.
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