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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3513–1.3539 but failed to continue its decline and returned to that zone. Today, another rebound would again favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the support level of 1.3428–1.3437. A consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level would allow for expectations of growth toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3596, from which the pair has already rebounded twice.
The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave bears almost complete control of the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop supported bulls for two weeks. At present, the situation in the Middle East is contradictory, so traders are in a waiting mode. To break the bullish trend, two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low are required.
Tuesday's news background was very interesting, but traders preferred to remain calm. In my view, the key event of the day was Iran's refusal to negotiate with the U.S. At the same time, the UK released a fairly positive unemployment report, and the U.S. published encouraging retail sales data. However, throughout the day neither bulls nor bears deemed it necessary to take the offensive. Trading activity was weak.
This morning, the UK released its March inflation report. It is worth recalling that in March, a full-scale war began in the Middle East, and energy prices surged sharply. Therefore, many—including the Bank of England—expected a sharp acceleration in inflation. However, the March report showed a moderate increase in the consumer price index to 3.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. Core inflation declined to 3.1% year-on-year, while traders had expected 3.2%. These figures did not surprise traders, so the reaction was minimal. In addition, traders are currently reluctant to trade actively, awaiting further developments in the Middle East. Donald Trump extended the truce with Iran yesterday, but the timing of the next round of negotiations remains unknown.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above a descending trend channel, allowing for expectations of a full-fledged trend. After a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3540. However, prices then became stuck between the 1.3482 and 1.3540 levels. The chart picture on the hourly timeframe is currently clearer, so it is advisable to rely on it. No new emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,603, while short positions rose by 5,973. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 55,000 versus 110,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, creating a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical backdrop.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full truce is still far off, and the war could resume at any time. In that case, the advantage of bears could strengthen further.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On April 22, the economic calendar contains one important entry, which has already been released and did not trigger a significant reaction. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may again be very weak.
GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3513–1.3539 level, targeting 1.3428–1.3437. Buying is possible upon consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level, targeting 1.3596–1.3620.
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