22.04.202610:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Price Analysis and Forecast — Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Creates Uncertainty for the Euro

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near yesterday's lows, though still above the 9-day EMA, having lost only modest ground. While the U.S. dollar has slightly weakened amid the potential for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, heightened market caution due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict continues to support the dollar.

U.S. President Donald Trump initiated an extension of the truce until progress is achieved in negotiations between the parties, Bloomberg reports, but confirmed that the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iranian ports will continue. In response, Iranian military officials stated they would not reopen this strategically important waterway as long as U.S. naval forces remain in place.

The U.S. blockade of Iranian vessels continues following the unsuccessful second round of talks. Iranian armed forces warned of possible large-scale strikes on pre-designated targets in response to ongoing threats from Trump.

On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that American naval forces intend to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports, targeting Tehran's key sources of revenue by restricting maritime trade. The UK Ministry of Defence announced plans for a meeting of military experts from more than 30 countries in London over two days starting Wednesday to discuss measures to restore operations in the Strait of Hormuz and outline detailed plans.

Regarding economic data, U.S. retail sales rose by 1.7% in March, improving from the previous reading of 0.7% (revised from 0.6%) in February. This result exceeded market expectations of 1.4%. On an annual basis, retail sales increased by 4.0% in March, matching February's figure. Preliminary HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the eurozone will be released on Thursday.

On Tuesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde expressed concern about the highly uncertain outlook for the eurozone amid significant shocks to energy supplies linked to Middle East tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Although energy prices have not yet reached levels associated with a worst-case scenario, Lagarde emphasized that economic forecasts remain fragile.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above key moving averages, and oscillators are positive, indicating a bullish bias. The current support lies at the 9-day EMA; if it fails to hold, the psychological level of 1.1700 may provide support. However, bulls should remain cautious after the recent failed attempt to break above the 1.1800 level.