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The test of the price at 1.1698 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1716.
The University of Michigan's data on decreasing inflation expectations negatively impacted the dollar last Friday, prompting a rise in the euro. The reduction in inflation expectations diminishes the appeal of dollar investments, as it increases the likelihood of a softer U.S. monetary policy stance. The current situation in the Middle East also favors buying risk assets.
Today, traders are anticipating the release of the GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for Germany. This indicator is widely recognized as one of the main barometers of consumer attitudes toward spending, which, in turn, affects the economic dynamics of the eurozone's leading economy. The GfK leading index analyzes various factors that shape German consumers' purchasing intentions, including assessments of the current economic situation, expectations of future trends, and perceptions of personal financial prospects. Changes in this index's value help predict future consumer demand, which influences the euro's exchange rate.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1730 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1752. At point 1.1752, I intend to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated after solid data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1719 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1752.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1719 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1698, where I will exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair today may return if the situation in the Middle East worsens. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1730 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1719 and 1.1698.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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