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The price test at 159.70 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased to the target level of 159.43.
Recent news about a potential offer from Tehran for a new peace deal to the U.S. side led to a weakening of the dollar against the yen; however, a more significant downward correction in the USD/JPY pair was not achieved. Yes, the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough in relations between Iran and the US, even with uncertainties regarding its implementation, is traditionally viewed as a factor that reduces geopolitical tensions, but this must be followed by some actions. Only actual reductions in geopolitical risks will lead to correlation with the demand for risk assets. Any positive diplomatic signals could boost the Japanese yen. However, mere words and messages will not suffice. To shift the USD/JPY pair into a bullish trend, real actions are required.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.42 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 159.73 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.73, I will exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.30 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 159.42 and 159.73.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price falls below 159.30 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.98 level, where I will exit the short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to sell as high as possible near the level of 160 yen. Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.42 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 159.30 and 158.98.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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