01.05.202606:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on May 1? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. Essentially, only the ISM Manufacturing Index in the US can be noted. This is quite an important report, but in recent months, the market has been actively ignoring the macroeconomic backdrop. Therefore, this report may also be overlooked, or its reaction could be extremely weak. There are no macroeconomic reports today in Germany, the European Union, or the United Kingdom.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to highlight among Friday's fundamental events. However, this is not necessary. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held a meeting, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England held meetings. We learned that the Federal Reserve is not inclined to change monetary policy in 2026, and the ECB and BoE have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are not overly concerned about rising inflation, expecting an end to the conflict in the Middle East and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Either way, none of the central banks sent any "hawkish" signals.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to amaze with its level of uncertainty, which is why central banks are reluctant to rush into making important monetary policy decisions. The war in the Middle East may resume if a deal between Iran and the US is not signed. A deal cannot be signed if Iran does not even agree to a second round of negotiations. At the same time, the ceasefire continues (which is good), while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (which is bad).

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly again. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3587-1.3598. The correction for the euro continues, while the British pound has already broken its last local high and may continue to rise. Upward trends are maintained for both currency pairs.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.