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The new week for the euro currency has not started particularly well, but the "mess" has not spoiled it. Traders are still aiming to buy due to events from the previous week. To recap, inflation in the European Union continues to accelerate, and with the current progress in the negotiations between Iran and the US, the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain blocked for some time. Consequently, further increases in energy prices can be expected. However, even without this, there is already a global oil shortage, and the Eurozone (along with many other countries) has been forced to turn to strategic reserves. The greater the shortage, the higher oil prices will rise.
Based on this, the European Central Bank may raise interest rates at its next meeting. I must admit, I expected a "hawkish" decision at the April meeting, but the central bank decided to wait and observe. Perhaps they hope inflation will not accelerate too much and then begin to slow? Before the next ECB meeting, two more inflation reports will be released, which can provide insight into the trend. However, at this moment, I see no reason for improvement in the energy situation.
It should also be noted that nothing is preventing the ECB from raising interest rates. Such a decision would slow the economy, but the central bank is prepared for it, unlike the Fed. In the US, tightening monetary policy is fundamentally unacceptable. Imagine the situation where the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who is likely to be appointed to lower interest rates and influence the FOMC to adopt "dovish" decisions, has to announce a tightening! Donald Trump could very well dismiss the new central bank president. While he cannot actually do this, the situation could turn comical. Additionally, the US labor market does not currently allow for hopes of raising interest rates. Therefore, the euro is in a more favorable monetary situation.
This week, there will be several speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Chief Economist Philip Lane. I expect these officials will clarify when and under what conditions the markets can expect interest rate hikes. Additionally, retail sales data for the EU will be released on Thursday, but this event is not currently of great interest to market participants. Thus, this week's main focus will be on geopolitics, important data from the US, and significant speeches from ECB officials.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward segment of the trend (bottom image) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set appears quite complete and may only take on a more complex, elongated form if the geopolitical background in the Middle East does not worsen this week. Otherwise, a new downward segment of the trend may begin from the current positions. We have seen the corrective wave, and I expect further increases in the instrument from current levels, targeting around the 19 figure.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave upward structure on the charts, which may be completed soon. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a corrective wave set to form. Therefore, the base scenario for the coming days is an increase into the 37 figure. Everything else will depend on geopolitical factors.
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