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Gold (XAU/USD) is continuing to recover from yesterday's sharp decline, reaching the $4,550 level. However, the current rebound is not supported by clear fundamental drivers and may quickly lose momentum, which calls for caution when opening positions aimed at further price gains.
The escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran continues to fuel inflation expectations and reinforce forecasts of tighter monetary policy. In addition, the persistent bullish sentiment toward the US dollar is likely to limit gains in gold, which does not generate interest income.
The fragile truce between the US and Iran has come under threat following a major outbreak of violence in the Persian Gulf on Monday. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and South Korea reported attacks on vessels in this key maritime corridor. The UAE also reported a fire at the Fujairah oil port caused by strikes from Iranian missiles and drones. US President Donald Trump warned that Iran would face destruction if it attacks American ships escorting vessels through this strategic route as part of the "Project Freedom" initiative.
Recent developments increase the risk of further escalation in the Middle East and have already triggered another rise in oil prices on Monday.
This reinforces market expectations that a military-driven surge in energy prices will intensify inflationary pressure and push major central banks—including the US Federal Reserve—toward a more hawkish stance. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year is now estimated at around 35%, up from less than 10% last Friday.
The key driver remains the macroeconomic environment: rising energy prices accelerate inflation, forcing central banks to tighten policy and reducing expectations of rate cuts. Taken together, this creates unfavorable conditions for the yellow metal. Additional pressure comes from the strengthening US dollar, which could lead to further declines in gold prices in the short term.
At the same time, the current market setup supports elevated yields on US Treasury bonds, which acts as a supporting factor for the dollar. Additionally, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz enhance the dollar's status as a safe-haven reserve currency and reinforce a negative short-term outlook for gold. This suggests a high likelihood that any upward moves will meet strong selling pressure. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for clear signs of sustained buying demand before concluding that a bottom has formed and opening long positions.
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair maintains a short-term bearish bias, remaining near a two-month low. If gold fails to hold the psychological level of 4,500, the decline could accelerate toward the 200-day EMA, followed by the 200-day SMA as a key support level, before potentially falling to the March low. For bulls to regain control and enable a meaningful upward move, gold needs to reclaim the 4,700 level—where the 20-day SMA lies—and consolidate above it. However, as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears currently have the upper hand.
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