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Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. In Germany and the Eurozone, second estimates of the services sector business activity for April will be published, but these reports are not even marked as important in event calendars. The only relatively significant report today will be the ADP report on changes in employment in the US private sector. This report is an analog of the Non-Farm Payrolls, but is less important and less accurate. The market typically reacts quite cautiously to it, and under current circumstances (when traders have been ignoring the macroeconomic backdrop for 2.5 months), it is unlikely to elicit a reaction.
Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, speeches were delivered by representatives of the European Central Bank (Chipollone, Lane, Buch) and the Federal Reserve (Musalem, Goolsbee, Hammack). However, last week there were meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, so all necessary information is already available. We learned that the Fed is not inclined to change monetary policy in 2026, while the ECB and the BoE have taken a wait-and-see position and are not overly concerned about rising inflation, hoping for an end to the conflict in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB and the BoE are ready to raise key rates in the summer if acute necessity arises, but the Fed is not. It is unlikely that the positions of the central bank representatives changed over the past week.
The geopolitical background has begun to change, but unfortunately, not in the direction everyone would hope. On Monday, combat actions resumed in the Middle East, and one can only hope that the new escalation will be quickly extinguished. However, the chances of such an outcome are about as likely as signing a truce between Iran and the US.
During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade with a downward bias if a new batch of "optimistic" news comes from the Middle East. However, both the euro and the pound have been trading in a range for several weeks now, and the market is responding very sluggishly to news. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3587-1.3598.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.
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