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The EUR/USD pair is posting a slight positive move, pausing the moderate decline seen yesterday. Nevertheless, the current rise does not reflect strong bullish activity: uncertainty surrounding a possible peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is supporting the U.S. dollar and limiting further gains in spot prices, while traders closely await the release of key U.S. labor market data.
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report could significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potentially boost demand for the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, growing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are slowing the recent optimism surrounding de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, reinforcing the dollar's status as a reserve currency and preventing EUR/USD bulls from opening new long positions.
The upward movement observed over the past two weeks has remained limited; however, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), confirming that the overall market tone remains constructive, provided the bullish market structure stays intact. Oscillators remain in positive territory, confirming that bulls still hold the advantage. However, the flat slope of the 200-day SMA indicates a sideways trend.
Further upward momentum is likely to encounter initial resistance near the psychologically important 1.1800 level. A confident breakout above this level would open the way for a stronger bullish move.
If the pair starts to decline, the nearest support will be located at the 20-day SMA around 1.1730, followed by the 100-day SMA and the round 1.1700 level. Below that, the 200-day SMA at 1.1670 will become the next key demand zone and increase the risk of a transition into a deeper corrective phase.
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