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Bitcoin and Ethereum have been tracing an upward move that is actually a correction for almost three months. This is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. Liquidity pools below remain untouched, and the price is likely to revisit them with roughly a 90% probability. However, the market remains apathetic and without any direction. There are neither the fundamentals nor the demand needed for a new bullish trend, yet the market does not seem ready for a fresh leg of the bearish trend either.
Meanwhile, investment analyst Lyn Alden said Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 as a result of the ever-growing US national debt, which recently exceeded $39 trillion. Remarkably, Donald Trump returned to power promising to cut the national debt, eliminate the budget deficit, and correct the trade deficit. A year into his second term, the national debt continues to climb, the trade balance remains negative, and the budget is still in deficit. According to Alden, the global economy is moving toward a collapse manifested by declining purchasing power. Central banks continue to print money, leading to sustained inflation. Alden argues this is how economic systems in many countries work: continuous issuance to finance government debt at the expense of money's purchasing power. The only escape she sees is Bitcoin.
The more money central banks create, the more Bitcoin will rise, absorbing excess liquidity. In short, Bitcoin will go up simply because there is more money in the world, not necessarily because of growing real demand. Investors are still reluctant to redirect capital from other investment instruments into Bitcoin, but "new money" or "excess money" is willing to flow into the crypto market. Incidentally, none of the ECB, the Bank of England, or the Federal Reserve is currently running quantitative easing programs.
Bitcoin continues to form a full downtrend with corrective rallies against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. The only current POI is the nearest bearish FVG on the daily TF, located in the $79,300–$81,200 area. It has not yet been fully invalidated but could be soon. If that FVG is invalidated, the next POI for sell positions would be $84,900–$88,800 (the next bearish FVG). Downside targets remain below $60,000. For long positions, you can use the single bullish FVG on the daily TF, but remember that any crypto advance right now is, a priori, a correction.
On the daily TF, a downtrend and corrective moves against it continue to form. The key sell pattern remains the bearish weekly order block. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and long?lasting, and we do not believe it is finished — there are no signs that the downtrend is complete for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near term, ETH may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. A sell signal may form on the daily TF at the next FVG, and Bitcoin may form a similar signal. Therefore, we recommend watching for structure breaks on lower TFs and the formation (or reaction to) bearish patterns on higher TFs. The 2026 low target of $1,744 looks quite achievable. On the 4-hour TF, traders can use deviations to open positions within a flat range in the short term.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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