18.05.202608:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global economy depends on Strait of Hormuz?

The eleventh week of the US and Israel's war against Iran has transformed from a military conflict into a full-blown global economic crisis. The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of global oil shipments passed before the hostilities — is effectively closed from both sides: Iran is blocking commercial shipping, and the US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent has topped $111 a barrel, up almost 50% since the war began on February 28. Inflation in the US has reached 3.8% — a three-year high; in the eurozone, it is 3.0%, the highest since 2023. Central bank rates are not moving. And the negotiations are stalled.

This past Sunday saw a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump wrote on social media: "The clock is ticking for Iran, they better move, QUICKLY, or there will be nothing left of them. TIME IS RUNNING OUT!" He then posted a series of aggressive graphics — a Middle East map with an American flag and arrows pointing at Iran. According to Axios, he is convening a Situation Room meeting on Tuesday to discuss military options.

The divide between the parties remains fundamental. The US insists on moving Iranian uranium to its territory, rejects reparations, and would unfreeze only a quarter of Iranian assets. Iran, in turn, demands a full lifting of sanctions, compensation, and — a crucial point — recognition of its sovereign right to control the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation is worsened by the fact that, according to US intelligence, contrary to Washington's official statements, Tehran has restored access to key missile sites and launchers, which can only complicate the negotiation process that is still ongoing with Pakistan mediating, but has so far produced no result.

Situation in the strait: the IRGC said that in the past 24 hours, it had not allowed a single commercial vessel through and warned of the imminent "deactivation" of American military bases in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, an Iranian drone blew up an electrical generator near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE. The only positive signal is that Riyadh has offered Tehran a Middle East non-aggression pact.

As I noted above, all this accelerates inflation and supports the dollar. US inflation in April was 3.8% year-on-year, and the PPI jumped to 6% year-on-year — the highest since 2022. Markets have fully ruled out a rate cut in 2026, which led to dollar gains last week. The probability of a rate hike by December is estimated at roughly 28%. At the same time, Trump publicly expects the new Fed chair Warsh to cut rates.

Today, the G7 meeting in Paris begins, running May 18–19. Finance ministers and central bank governors of the "Group of Seven" have gathered in Paris for a meeting that, for the first time since 1975, brings financial and energy ministers together in the same room along with IEA representatives. The agenda is the economic consequences of the Middle Eastern war. Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya have been invited as guests.

Currency traders will be eager for any outcome, since there are no other fundamental reference points today.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to take the 1.1640 level. Only that will allow them to target a test of 1.1675. From there, a climb to 1.1700 is possible, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1725 high. In the event of a decline, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around 1.1610. If there is nobody there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1600 or to open long positions from 1.1580.

Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3340. Only that will allow them to target 1.3380, above which it will be fairly difficult to break through. The furthest target is the 1.3410 area. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control of 1.3310. If they manage that, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD to a minimum of 1.3280 with the prospect of moving toward 1.3250.