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Yesterday, equity indices finished lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.67%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.84%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.65%.
Global equities logged a fourth consecutive day of declines — the longest losing streak in over two months. The MSCI All Country World index lost 0.2%, Asian markets fell by about 1%, and South Korea's KOSPI declined by 1.5%. Futures point to a similarly weak European open.
The main problem remains the bond market. Thirty-year US Treasury yields climbed to 5.20%, a level last seen during the 2007 global financial crisis. The long-dated government bond index (10-plus years) is down 4.6% year-to-date. Brent crude holds near $111/bbl, there are no signs of de-escalation with Iran, and that continues to feed inflation expectations.
It is important to distinguish two types of yield rises. When yields rise on the back of a strong economy, that can support corporate profits. When they rise because of inflation fears, the effect is negative for the market, especially for high-multiple growth stocks. Right now, we are in the latter scenario.
At the G7 meeting in Paris, leaders pledged to avoid excessive fiscal stimulus amid inflationary risks. NATO is discussing the possible escort of ships through the Strait of Hormuz if it is not open by early July. President Trump has again threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days, so the geopolitical backdrop remains heavy.
All eyes are on Nvidia's report tonight — the market is watching with particular tension. Street estimates point to revenue growth of around 80% for the quarter, but investors will care most about production guidance and management's view on competition. In an environment where markets are already repricing the path of rates, the AI narrative needs fresh confirmation. A disappointing result from Nvidia could deliver another blow to the tech sector; a strong print could provide the catalyst the market has lacked over the past four days.
Technically, the S&P 500 analysis shows that buyers' immediate task is to overcome the resistance level of $7,381. That would signal renewed upside momentum and open the path to $7,404. Maintaining control above $7,427 would further strengthen buyers' position. On the downside, buyers must defend the $7,355 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,339 and open the way to $7,325.
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