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Gold continues to trade within a narrow sideways range near $4,520 per ounce—practically unchanged from the previous week. Recently, this scenario has become very familiar: the metal is caught between two competing narratives and cannot choose a direction.
On one hand, an Iranian semi-official agency reported that the latest American proposal "has somewhat narrowed the gap" between the parties. This seemingly signals a reduction in geopolitical premiums. However, almost simultaneously, there was a report that the country's supreme leader prohibited exporting uranium close to weapon-grade quality, and Trump spoke out strongly against any attempts to impose a transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz. Contradictory headlines on a single day leave the market unsure which direction to take.
This is particularly painful for gold because uncertainty over the Iranian issue keeps inflation expectations elevated, which, in turn, keeps interest rates high. Gold, which does not generate interest income, loses its main catalyst for growth under such conditions, potentially preserving its chances for further declines.
Since the start of the war at the end of February, gold has already lost about 14% and has since been trading sideways, failing to find either a sufficiently strong bullish impulse for recovery or a clear trigger for the next round of declines. It is evident that traders are caught between two scenarios: if the conflict drags on, stagflation fears will ultimately support the metal; if an agreement is reached, falling interest rates will do the same. The problem is that neither scenario has yet materialized—and the market is simply waiting.
Silver lost 0.1% to $76.61. Platinum and palladium showed virtually no change.
Given the current technical picture, gold buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,546. This will allow them to target $4,607, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The farthest target will be $4,656. If gold declines, bears will attempt to take control at $4,481. If they succeed, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,432 with the prospect of reaching $4,401.
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