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Yesterday, equity indices finished mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.61% and the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 1.19%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.23%.
Global equity markets rose for a sixth consecutive day and hit fresh all-time highs. The MSCI All Country World index reached a record level, MSCI Asia added 0.9%, and futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 point to a further ~0.1% gain after US benchmarks closed at highs. Europe is also set to open higher.
The main story this week is memory-chip manufacturers. SK Hynix became the third Asian company to breach $1 trillion market capitalization, and its shares are up more than 1,000% over 12 months. South Korea's KOSPI has nearly doubled year-to-date and is the world's best-performing major index. In the US, Micron Technology jumped by 19%, also entering the trillion-dollar market-cap club. Investors are making a simple bet: memory chips have become a critical bottleneck for data-center capacity expansion, the shortage will persist until 2027, and therefore, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron enjoy extraordinary pricing power over the world's largest tech companies.
The geopolitical backdrop remains a cautionary factor rather than a source of euphoria. Brent fell by 1.6% to $98/bbl on expectations of a peace agreement with Iran, but overnight, both sides exchanged strikes again and US Central Command denied reports of ship escorts through the strait. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that finalizing an agreement will take several more days.
Nonetheless, the market is clearly trading the future rather than the present. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by one basis point to 4.47%, and the dollar weakened versus most G10 currencies. All this signals that the war premium is easing, while the AI premium keeps rising. Fear of missing out currently trumps fear of unresolved geopolitical risks.
Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,547. Doing so would confirm further upside momentum and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,518 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474.
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