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Markets price everything in. The S&P 500 climbed while largely ignoring the Middle East conflict — investors judged oil supply disruptions to be temporary. Wars end with peace agreements; semiconductors are different. Strong results from chip manufacturers signal that supply problems in that sector are not as easily resolved as those for oil.
Micron Technology became the latest member of the trillionaires club. The stock jumped by about 20%, and UBS forecasts a doubling in value. When chip demand is sky-high and supply constrained, prices can go parabolic. The Magnificent Seven are yesterday's story; semiconductor makers have taken the lead. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up some 80% year-to-date.
Magnificent Seven and semiconductor index dynamics
Market participants are effectively betting on peace in the Middle East and then buying US companies with strong fundamentals. That sums up current action on US equity markets. Even reciprocal strikes on military targets by the US and Iran failed to dent investor sentiment; Tehran shows no sign of walking away from talks despite ceasefire breaches.
Iran seeks relief for a sinking economy via eased Western sanctions, the unfreezing of assets and permission to sell oil. At the same time, Tehran resists a deal that the White House could present as an American victory — it insists on limits to uranium destruction well below US demands. A hawkish faction within Iran's leadership also complicates talks.
Support for the S&P 500 comes from the first drop in the odds of Fed tightening in 2026 below 50% in recent days. If the central bank accepts the White House's view that the inflation spike is transitory, the probability of restarting monetary easing would rise over time. Faith in stimulus at the end of 2025 served as a cushion for the broad index; its return would be another driver for the rally.
The S&P 500 is also supported by lower Treasury yields. Falling oil prices reduce inflation expectations and the likelihood of Fed tightening, which lowers borrowing costs for companies and can boost profits. At the same time, the fall in Treasury yields creates a tailwind for US economic expansion.
Technically, bulls have won the battle for the key 7,460 level on the daily chart, which supports the case for a continued rally toward 7,700 and provides an opportunity to add long positions.
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