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Gold today fell to a two-month low, down 1.8% to $4,374 per ounce. Since the beginning of the war with Iran, the metal has lost over 17%, effectively nullifying all gains made since the start of the year. This is no longer just a correction; it is a systemic reassessment of gold's role in the current market context.
The immediate trigger was a new wave of escalation. U.S. forces struck a military facility and other targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC declaring a retaliatory strike on an American base. Kuwaiti air defense systems reported intercepting missile and drone threats. All of this occurred just hours after Trump stated that he was "not satisfied" with the course of negotiations. The prospect of a quick agreement has receded again, oil prices for Brent surged to $98, and inflation risks have intensified once more.
It is worth noting the paradox that has developed around gold. The metal is under pressure from both sides: escalation keeps inflation and rates high, making non-yielding gold unattractive. However, if a peace agreement is reached, all of this will lower inflation expectations and remove the geopolitical premium. In other words, in any scenario, gold has more reasons to fall than to rise. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook recently stated that inflation is moving in the wrong direction and that she is prepared to raise rates—this puts direct pressure on the metal through the interest-rate channel.
Silver has fallen even more aggressively, down 3.6% to $71.98. Platinum and palladium have also decreased.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to regain the nearest resistance at $4,432. This will allow targeting $4,481, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,546. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control at $4,372. If they succeed, a breakout of the range could deal a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,304, with the prospect of a move to $4,249.
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