29.05.202612:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Strategy moves Bitcoin to exchange: market prices sale probability at 84%

While you're deciding whether to buy the current dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum, hoping for a market reversal and another "to the moon" rally, what recently seemed unthinkable is rapidly becoming reality.

Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain recorded a transfer of 411.5 BTC (about $30.3 million) from Strategy to Coinbase Prime — an exchange wallet traditionally used to prepare assets for sale. Prediction market Polymarket reacted immediately: the probability that Strategy will sell Bitcoin before December 31, 2026, rose to 84%. This is not panic or rumor — it is the collective estimate of thousands of market participants putting real money on a specific outcome. It says that the image of Strategy as an eternal Bitcoin buyer is finally broken.

Michael Saylor himself gave a reason for this. Several times over recent months, he has hinted that the company will sell coins from time to time — not out of weakness, but as a tool to maximize BTC per share. The logic sounds reasonable: if selling part of the reserves allows buying back debt at a discount or increasing the number of Bitcoins per share, it is technically a Bitcoin-positive operation for shareholders. This was the scheme used in the recent $1.5 billion convertible bond buyback — the company paid $1.38 billion, saving about 8% and formally increasing BTC-per-share yield. But for the market, the point is simpler: a sale is a sale, and the world's largest corporate holder of 843,000 coins is now officially a seller.

The news arrives at a very bad moment. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs yesterday reached $733 million —the largest since January; Ethereum logged its twelfth losing day in a row. On top of that, geopolitical escalation in the Middle East continues to weigh on risk assets despite fresh progress in peace talks.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $74,700, which would open a direct path to $76,500, and from there, $78,300 is within reach; breaking above that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. On a decline, I expect buyers at $72,900. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400. The furthest downside target is the $69,800 area.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,026 would open a direct path to $2,084. The furthest target is the high near $2,128; overcoming it would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $1,969. A move back below that area could quickly drop ETH toward $1,911. The furthest downside target is the $1,845 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.