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Today, Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline, once again falling below the $4,450 level and approaching the critically important 200-day SMA, while reaching a new weekly low during recent trading hours. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher for a third consecutive day, increasing inflation risks and reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period.
This is weighing on gold, which does not generate interest income. In addition, geopolitical instability continues to support the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, contributing to capital outflows from the precious metal.
According to the latest reports regarding the Middle East crisis, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, describing the operation as an act of "self-defense." In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, although a significant portion of the attacks was intercepted by U.S. and allied air defense systems in the region. At the same time, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified.
Another source of tension is the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran amid disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. This increases the likelihood of further escalation and keeps geopolitical risks elevated. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the removal of sanctions on Iran is not being considered in exchange for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that any sanctions relief would only be possible if Tehran abandons its enriched uranium program.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire regime and the continuation of the blockade until the negotiation process is concluded "one way or another." These developments have contributed to the recovery in oil prices following the monthly low recorded last Friday, strengthening inflation expectations and reinforcing forecasts of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Additional support for these expectations came from comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack, who stated that the central bank remains committed to returning inflation to the 2% target and may be forced to take further action if price growth fails to slow in the near term. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are assigning a probability of more than 50% to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December.
Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to support the dollar, placing additional pressure on gold prices.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias. Failure to hold above the 200-day SMA could accelerate the decline toward deeper support levels. If bulls manage to break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, they will gain an opportunity for further growth. However, as long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.
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